Florida's 2024 Hurricane Forecast
We all know Florida is the hot spot when it comes to tropical storms, hurricanes, and the most extreme weather. Every hurricane season, we expect to hear stories out of Florida-whether it's residents doing unconventional things while riding out the warnings or communities pulling together to rebuild after damage-we know the state will be at the forefront during hurricane season.
For 2024, the season started off strong, with Florida getting its first taste of tropical storms at the start of June, which is when hurricane season starts. This is what to expect for the remainder of the season in the Sunshine State.
Hurricane Season in Florida Off to a Strong Start
In early June, Southern Florida saw floods from a tropical storm that caused blocked roads, numerous delays, and even floating cars taking a stroll down the street. The Gulf of Mexico brought the first tropical storm to Florida to kick off what is being said as the most active hurricane season in recent times.
While it technically wasn't a hurricane to start the season in Florida, we are sure it will see plenty. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there will be an 85% chance things will be above average for this Atlantic hurricane season.
To break it down more, the average season has about 14 storms that get fun names like "Debby." The NOAA is predicting we will see anywhere from 17 to 25 storms worthy of names, with four of those being major and around 13 being normal hurricanes. That is quite a bit when Florida is storm-central when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes.
Predicting Hurricanes Can Be Tricky
We can't control the weather, and Mother Nature can do whatever she wants. We can only do our best to prepare for whatever comes our way. With that said, Colorado State, the NOAA, and the other major players when it comes to predicting weather and issuing warnings are all in agreement that August will be the most aggressive and unforgiving, with double the amount of activity on the horizon.
Tropical storms Debby and Beryl were the strongest ones in the continental U.S. since 1900 as far as storm energy goes. These groups predict a 75% chance of at least two more hurricanes to hit land in the U.S. this season, with a 55% chance one of those will land in the Category 3 or higher range.
Florida and Texas Are Battling It Out
Florida isn't the only state to undergo massive hits this hurricane season. Texas has been right there with them (getting Hurricane Beryl), holding their hand this season.
In total, there have been one major hurricane, three regular hurricanes, and five named storms in the 2024 hurricane season. These have made up about 60% of what an average season sees in terms of storm energy. That is quite a lot considering we still have months of the season left to go. Florida, hold on to your flip flops.
August Will Be the Worst Month
We haven't seen the worst yet. Historically speaking, 80% of the major hurricanes tend to hit after August 20, and we have until November to see what else the weather has in store. Though the weather is drying out right now, anything goes for the last week of August.
Elevated temperatures at the sea surface and La Nina-like conditions are going to ramp things up at the end of August into September when the hurricane season reaches a peak. WeatherTiger's algorithm forecasts a 90% increase in the hyperactivity of this hurricane season. All across the board, we are going to be in for it, with Florida at the center and Texas next in line.
Predictions Keep Rising
Colorado State University originally stated we should see 23 named storms back in April but has already revamped their information and raised that number to 25. The CSU also thinks spotting a storm within 50 miles of Florida is up to 95% when the average for this time is typically sitting at around 86%.
In addition to tropical storms, hurricane sightings up to 50 miles of the Sunshine State are at a high 71%, with Florida having a 40% chance of seeing a strong Category 3 (or higher) hurricane setting its sights on the state.
Florida Isn't Alone
While we all think Florida is used to this type of weather by now, the increased number of storms and hurricanes isn't something the residents are happy about seeing. But the rest of the coastline is also going to see an increase in weather conditions. The CSU predicts the entire U.S. coastline sits at 57% of a landfall-style major hurricane hitting, which is up from the average 43%.
The Florida Peninsula specifically is taking a 31% probability over a previous 21%, and the Gulf Coast west toward Brownsville will see a 38% probability of seeing a landfall storm over the average of 27%.
With the intensity of Hurricane Beryl kicking things off, we shouldn't be too surprised by the intensity with which the rest of the hurricane season is about to bring. Leading with a Category 5 Hurricane earlier than average might be a historic event, but it doesn't bode well if you want things to calm down and be done for the rest of the season.
All in all, instead of only Florida, it would be smart of residents along the coastline anywhere in the U.S. to take precautions, plan an escape route if needed, have some perishable items on hand in case roads become impassable, and be prepared for one of the most volatile hurricane seasons we have seen in modern times. We are living in record-breaking times when it comes to the weather, so let's all keep an eye on what's to come.
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